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Those two reincarnation ideas are not mutually exclusive; they need not be one or the other, for they can agree and overlap quite comfortably, with one view including the other.
Pure reasoning is with known facts, sensible conjecture can use assumed facts. Sensible conjecture should follow the same guidelines of rational thinking as does reasoning with known facts.
It is common for people to see contradictions that aren’t there, and to misread correlations too, so I'll throw in some rules of logic. There are many more, of course, but these provide a good start:
Although causes produce correlations, and falsities contradict truth, and things connected coincide, it does not work in reverse. Correlation does not prove cause, and an apparent contradiction does not prove a falsity, and a coincidence does not prove a connection, for a bigger picture reveals more facts that may contain explanations.
Results outnumber causes, for many results come from every cause, so there are more correlating results than causes that produced them, and correlating results come both simultaneously and sequentially. The idea that a correlation proves or even indicates the cause is more likely to be incorrect than correct.
And the wider and more extensive a subject is, the more apparent contradictions and correlations it allows for.
And coincidence is a form of correlation but just an anecdotal one, and anecdotes do not prove trends, they only prove what is possible and marginal. Only weight of numbers proves trends.
In a boundaryless system the potential for correlations and apparent contradictions is infinite. Only in an enclosed system where we possess all the relevant facts do correlations make sense and contradictions disappear.
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When reasoning we need to do so by reality's rules and start off on the right foot. The best start is to differentiate between what you know and what you only think you know.
We should frequently prune back assumed knowledge until it becomes our practice to order our knowledge as the facts of reality are ordered.
Cause and effect, or the manifesting of facts has a direction of flow to it that logic must acknowledge. When we order our knowledge as the facts of reality are ordered, and layer our understanding as reality is layered, then our thinking and logic can proceed as reality proceeds.
Strictly speaking, experience is knowledge is proof. We only know what we’ve experienced, not what we think about what we’ve experienced. Experience only proves the experience, nothing more.
Most strictly speaking, what we know is what we are, all else is conjecture. And the more subtle the subject matter – such as the spiritual/occult/metaphysical matters discussed on forums such as this one – then the more rational our thinking needs to be.
When we are learning to differentiate between what we know and what we only think we know, then it may seem that there will not be much knowledge left, but what we have left is worth more than what we had before. A grain of truth is worth more than thousands of grains of falsity.
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Insanity, by definition, is dissociation from reality. It varies by degrees within individuals. It doesn’t require much sanity or a great deal of intelligence to get by in the world. The insane can feel perfectly sane, and most do, and it is possible, even common, for people to be quite insane and yet reasonably functional in the world, and to go through life without themselves or anyone else knowing that their mind is mostly dissociated from reality.
A common insanity are delusions. Most delusions arise automatically between incompatible beliefs so as to reconcile them. The mind likes to be rounded, not uneven with protruding incompatible beliefs, so there automatically arises a vertical filler that rounds it out, and horizontal fillers to reconcile reality with the overriding beliefs. Another way of looking at it is that the mind does not like dissociated dots of belief that do not communicate, so it joins them with lines of explanation that enable internal communication. These automatically arising delusions enable the mind to cycle itself comfortably without having to stop at the gaps. The automatic arising of delusions as if by a life of their own, with no conscious effort from the individual means that to the individual they feel real and convincing, usually highly purposeful, and can often seem divinely inspired. Delusions cannot be tackled directly, but when their supportive structures are dismantled then they can disappear as naturally as they arose.
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